Theresa Worrell: National Housing Market Update [video]

The rebound in Australian housing values continued into 2020 with CoreLogic`s national home value index up nine-tenths of a percent over the first month of the year.

The latest figures take the annual growth rate to 4.1%, that`s the fastest rate of growth over a twelve-month period since December 2017.

Housing values were higher in January across every capital city and rest-f-state region, apart from regional South Australia, where values held firm over the month.

Such a wide-spread rise in housing values shows the recovery trend is spreading away from Sydney and Melbourne to other areas of the country where housing is more affordable.

Across the capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne continued as the leaders for capital gains Values increased by 1.1% and 1.2% over the month respectively, while Hobart up 0.9% achieved a higher growth rate relative to most other regions.

The remaining capital cities generally saw a mild rise in values over the month.

Across the rest-of-state markets, the strongest conditions were recorded in regional Tasmania, where values were up 1.3% over the month, followed by regional Western Australia at 0.9% then regional Victoria and regional Queensland, both up eight-tenths of a percent.

Although there is an apparent recovery across all of the capital city and rest of state regions of Australia, the speed of growth has lost some momentum over recent months.

The national dwelling value index slowed from a recent monthly peak of 1.7% in November, down to 0.9% in January.

Seasonal effects provide some explanation for the slowdown, with our seasonally adjusted index implying this time of the year shaves around 1 basis point of growth from the December reading and about 2 basis points off the January reading.

Factoring in the seasonal effects still shows a reduction in the speed of growth across most markets, especially Sydney and Melbourne where affordability constraints are once again becoming more pressing.

As advertised stock levels rise over the early part of the year, we could see some further dampening of growth rates in these already unaffordable markets.

Nationally, housing values have recovered by 6.7% since finding a floor in June last year, however CoreLogic`s national index remains 2.2% below the October 2017 peak.

Bank Valuer3

With housing values rising at the quarterly pace of 3.7%, we are likely to see a nominal recovery in the national home value measure within the next two or three months.

Four of Australia`s eight capital cities are already showing home value at new record highs: they`re Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra. Sydney values need to recover by a further 5.4% before posting a nominal recovery and Melbourne values need to see a further 1.2% lift.

Perth and Darwin will take a much longer time to see values recover.

Although the Perth market seems to be moving into a recovery phase now, housing values remain 21.3% below their 2014 peak and Darwin values are 31.8% below their peak.

Now let`s take a closer look at the housing market conditions across each of the capital cities.