Theresa Worrell: An Economic Forecast for the COVID-19 Recovery (2020-21) Animated Map

What’s your head for the world economy?

While the short-term outlook looks bleak, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a positive outlook for 2021.

When the economy does recover, which countries will see the largest growth?

That’s what the following infographic from Visual Capitalist shows.

The IMF forecast for Australia is for a recession this year followed by 6.1% growth in 2021

The International Monetary Fund’s economic forecasts are based on expectations that the coronavirus will be contained in the second half of 2020 and that there will be no second wave of infection, but they have warned of the potential for a second wave of the coronavirus if a vaccine is not developed.

Economists seem to agree that the domestic economy is likely to experience a V-shaped recovery when it eventually comes.

Of course the biggest unknown is just how long the coronavirus lockdown restrictions will remain in place.

Meanwhile, economists generally expect the unemployment rate to peak at around 10 per cent by the end of June 2020, compared with 5.2 per cent at present.

However, this is less than the levels originally forecast before the government introduced its fiscal stimulus package, including JobKeeper, to keep people employed.

The inflation rate in turn is forecast to be 1.4 per cent in June, falling to 1.25 per cent by the end of the year.

Reserve Bank Of Australia

Over the next 3 years official interest rates will remain at their current historic lows and will only rise when unemployment drops back to 4.5% and inflation picks up.

The RBA suggests this could be three years away.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is also providing $90 billion to the banks at a rate of 0.25 per cent to ensure a cheap line of credit is available throughout the crisis.

The RBA will also fund the banks at that low rate over three years, and provide additional funding if the banks increase lending to small and medium-sized businesses.

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